Boiling The Frog

FRES decision (sort of)

So, the General Dynamics Piranha V has been selected for the British Army’s FRES program (despite earlier indications that the French Nexter came out the winner at trials). Perhaps the the MoD were swayed by General Dynamic’s insistence that the trials vehicle was only an interim design (the Piranha Evolution) and that additional improvements would be made for the Piranha V, making it the most suited to the UK requirements. We shall see.

I’m not entirely unhappy with this decision. Unlike some I realise that there’s a lot of difference between the Piranha 3 (and US Stryker which is based on it) currently deployed by some nations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the new Piranha 5 - it is for a start almost 10 tonnes heavier, a good portion of which additional weight is, I suspect, armour aimed at reducing the IED risk. Future wars have to be planned for and whilst I’m in no position to predict the shape of future conflicts, neither is anyone else. To assume that because our current conflicts call for large numbers of MRAPs, that all future ones will be the same is a folly that any reading of recent military history will illustrate. And to assume that this decision has come about purely because Army Chiefs are “obsessed with buying shiny new toys” is, frankly, dumb.

A balanced force structure is required at all times (even in Iraq and Afghanistan where MRAPs are part of, not the entirety, of the desired mix) and abandoning capabilities and concentrating soley on MRAPs on the assumption that current conflicts are a model from which future conflicts will not depart, is unwise.

Having said that, there is of course no chance that the projected numbers of these vehicles will actually be purchased. Cuts to numbers will be made both to fund specialist vehicles for current conflicts (the right thing to do) and due to the inevitble cost-overuns. If they’re purchased at all - this Government’s habit of ‘announcing’ initiatives several times without actually spending the money necessary to implement the decision is well known.

Helicopter sense?

It’s a pity that sensible defence procurement decisions (and the reversing of the ridiculous ones that precede them) come about in the UK largely as a result of budgetary pressures rather than rational thinking.

From the Daily Telegraph comes a report that the order for 70 future Lynx helicopters looks likely to be canceled after the local elections on Thursday. As the opposition MP Douglas Carswell comments:

“This is a bad deal and the sooner we get out of it the better. We could announce, for example, that we would buy the same amount of helicopters from Sikorsky – and still have £580 million to spend addressing funding shortages elsewhere in the Armed Forces.” He added that the Sikorsky Seahawk helicopters would be available within 12 months. The Lynx is not expected in service until 2013.

The Telegraph goes on to mention that there are two possible replacements, the Seahawk/Blackhawk or the Eurocopter NH90. Although the NH90 is the cheaper of the two, the long lead times for this aircraft (existing orders from initial customers for the type are already being delayed) makes the Seahawk the sensible choice, as I pointed out in a previous post, Protecting our (jobs for the) boys.

BBC scene setting

One of the problems in the UK with attempting to engage in a serious discussion about equipment and the future of our armed forces is the general disdain in which the armed forces are held by that great shaper of public opinion, the BBC.

As an organisation it glories in appointing defence correspondents who know nothing about defence and appear unwilling to learn. As I’ve previously pointed out, it also has a nice line in factual innacuracy which it abosolutley refuses to confront.

Far from being an attiude confined to the news programs that the orgnisation pumps out, the inclusion of BBC assumptions about how the world works/should work regularly and frequently make their way into the corporation’s drama output, with plot lines resembling a collection of left-wing dinner party talking points.

Last weekend I found myself watching the latest episode of the ‘hit’ BBC series, Dr Who. It was an object lesson in the ways in which our public sector braodcaster uses drama as a way of pushing its view of society and denigrating anyone who might wish to take up arms for their country.

The episode featured an evil billionaire, a dodgy private sector school, a rant about the evils of guns, a snide reference to Guantanamo Bay and soldiers portrayed as morons. All you needed to complete the set was a long suffering saintly public sector worker (although not, obviously, a member of the armed forces) and a child-molesting Christian evangelist and you’d have had the BBC mindset neatly wrapped up into a 45 minute package.

More from France

In a post a couple of days ago I talked about French defence budget problems which might lead to the order for the second French aircraft carrier being delayed or completely abandoned. Now via The Dew Line, a translation of a post on the French language ‘Secret Defense‘ blog which gives some pretty sad numbers on availability of French Air Force fast jets.

Availability has declined from 60% in 2005 to 51.7% in the first half of 2007. I remember reading some time ago that availability of French naval units was similarly poor, with spares shortages and maintenance cutbacks resulting in a ‘paper fleet’ with many units unable to put to sea in their assigned role.

In an earlier post on the same blog rumours about the French government whitepaper on defence (due in June of this year) are given an airing, with an indication that French frigate numbers may reduce to as little as 15. While I’m reasonably certain that this figure is quoted for shock value and that these leaks from the French Defence Ministry are scare tactics to ensure a more reasonable settlement, it is sad that in France, as in the UK, navies have to resort to leaked appeals to public opinion to prevent devastating capability cuts

Reapers, Hermes, money and numbers

I’ve posted previously about the ‘unconventional’ approach the MoD is taking to UAV procurement (finding something they like and then paying way over the odds for it). See “Phoenix UAV retired, national celebration announced” for more.

After the crash and destruction of one of the 2 current Reaper drones that the UK is using in Afghanistan, Lewis Page (author of the excellent Lions Donkeys and Dinosaurs: Waste and Blundering in the Military) has pointed out that this policy has been further exposed by the MoD’s reaction to a claim that replacing the Reaper would cost £50m.

The MoD insists that the Reaper would cost less than £10m to replace, to which Lewis Page replies:

“The MoD replacement-cost figure for the Reaper is an interesting one indeed, suggesting the UK would be able to buy Reapers from this point at £10m each. Rather than doing so, it is instead developing Watchkeeper drones based on Israeli and French kit for no less than £17m each.”

Although of course the £17m per unit cost for Watchkeeper probably includes groundstation, spares, training and (alas) a chunk of the development costs, it highlights once again the subordination of the MoD’s procurement policy to UK industrial policy.

Above: Israeli Hermes 450 with a very expensive paint job

Incidentally a Georgian Hermes 450 (the basis for Watchkeeper) was shot down by Russian Mig-29 earlier this week over the breakaway Abkazia region which Russia supports (the video can be found here, an article on the subject here). Judging from the positioning of the camera on a Hermes and the video showing the rear landing gear, the drone was apparantly in the process of ‘legging it’ when hit.

Poulet coming home to roost

Failing FRES

A hint of a step in the right direction?

The Guardian and the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders.

We Need Light Attack Aircraft (SWJ Blog)

The (re)introduction of propeller driven aircraft in a counter-insurgency role in Iraq and Afghanistan has been a subject of heated debate (unfortunately mostly outside the MoD) for some time, with the ‘Defence of the Realm‘ blog being particularly strident on the topic. Via the ‘Small Wars Journal’ blog comes news of an article that shows this debate is current wherever you look:

I’ve got an open mind on this subject. I can see the role that aircraft like a properly up-armed Super Tucano could play (and the price point is very attractive) but I can also see the need for speed (fast jets) and ‘loiterability’ (armed or unarmed UAVs) and getting the balance right within the limited defence budget and with service chief who are (rightly in my view) keeping an eye on equipping for possible future conflicts is never going to be easy.